Global oil supply returns to surplus for first time since start of Iran war, says IEA

AI desk brief

Global oil supply exceeded demand by almost 2m barrels a day in October, the IEA said, as Gulf exports recovered faster than consumption. It now forecasts fourth-quarter supply of 105m barrels a day, 1.7m above demand, reversing its earlier deficit forecast. Brent traded around $95 on Friday, versus an April peak of $126. Lower energy prices could ease inflation pressure, but the gold implications would depend on the policy and real-yield response. Continued tanker attacks and reports of possible further US strikes leave geopolitical risks unresolved; IEA members plan another 71m barrels of emergency releases by end-February.