Infographic: How and Why Gold Failed the Iran War Test (So Far)

Gold has so far failed the Iran-war safe-haven test in a striking way: BullionVault says the metal is almost 15% lower since the conflict began, marking its worst selloff since 2013, even as oil/gas, inflation expectations and risk aversion across stocks and bonds all surged. The article argues the move reflects how much of the geopolitical premium was already priced in before hostilities escalated, rather than a lack of haven demand in principle. The infographic shows gold rose 23.9% in the month before the US-Israeli strikes on 28 February 2026, a pre-war surge exceeded in the last 50 years only by the 25.6% gain ahead of the 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. But since the first market-open after the strikes, gold has rolled over sharply, with the metal down 13.6% over the latest month to 27 March. By historical comparison, BullionVault says gold typically rises 4.0% in the three months before major conflicts, with nearly all of that gain occurring in the final month ahead of fighting. Near term, the piece suggests the key question is whether gold is merely correcting after an exceptional pre-war rally or whether the market is signalling that geopolitical shocks are not enough on their own to sustain higher prices once positioning is crowded. For traders, the focus remains on whether any renewed escalation, energy disruption, or broader macro stress can re-ignite haven buying; absent that, the chart argues for continued vulnerability to long liquidation after the recent run-up.