Joe Cavatoni: The Real Game Is US vs China — Everything Else Is Noise #Gold #Geopolitics

Joe Cavatoni of the World Gold Council argues the dominant macro driver is a US-China strategic rivalry, with “everything else noise,” and says Trump’s move away from an immediate Xi meeting suggests elevated uncertainty is likely to persist. His base case is that the geopolitical backdrop stays chaotic for at least a year, which is broadly supportive for gold as a hedge against policy and geopolitical risk. The interview does not provide price levels or flow data, but the messaging is clearly constructive for bullion: Cavatoni also downplays the likelihood of near-term Fed rate cuts, implying the rate tailwind may remain limited while geopolitical demand support stays in place. In that framing, gold is less a short-term rates trade and more a portfolio insurance asset tied to US-China friction and broader instability. For the desk, the key takeaway is that the gold narrative here is centered on risk premium rather than conventional macro easing. Near-term catalysts remain US-China headlines and any shift in Fed guidance; absent a surprise dovish pivot, the interview suggests geopolitical hedging demand should stay firm.