Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

The Fed held the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in the March 18 FOMC statement, maintaining a data-dependent stance on “the extent and timing” of any further adjustments. The statement characterizes growth as “expanding at a solid pace,” notes job gains have “remained low” with unemployment “little changed,” and says inflation “remains somewhat elevated.” Policy uncertainty is flagged as “elevated,” with explicit mention that implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are “uncertain.” The Committee reiterated it is attentive to risks on both sides of the dual mandate and would be prepared to adjust policy if risks emerge that could impede its goals. For precious metals, the key signal is a steady policy rate but with a notable dovish dissent: Governor Stephen Miran voted against the decision, preferring a 25bp cut at this meeting. That dissent, alongside elevated uncertainty language, may lean supportive for gold via rates/real-yield expectations if markets interpret the reaction function as closer to easing than tightening; near-term catalysts will be Powell’s press conference tone, any changes to the dot plot/SEP (not included in this text), and the next inflation/labor prints driving the “incoming data” framework.