Bloomberg’s McGlone says gold and silver may have hit their generational peaks

Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike McGlone argues gold and silver may already have printed “generational” peaks, with gold holding above $4,500/oz but still suffering a sharp post-rally correction. He says gold’s January extreme capped an overextended speculative run, noting the metal hit its highest-ever level versus the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index and its biggest premium to its 60-month moving average since 1980. Spot gold was last at $4,612.70/oz, down 12.5% on the month, putting March on track for the worst monthly loss since the 1980s. McGlone says gold’s 2025 surge — which he called the best year since 1979 — was partly driven by the Iran war, but that the metal’s behavior has shifted from classic safe haven to risk asset, with 180-day volatility now more than twice the S&P 500 and at its highest quarterly level since 2006. He gives silver a similarly cautious call, saying its January rally to $120/oz may also have marked a historic peak, while the silver/oil and silver/copper ratios reached historic highs in Q1. Near term, he says geopolitics remain the key swing factor: a protracted conflict could keep gold above $5,000/oz, but signs of Iranian capitulation and a secure Strait of Hormuz could trigger mean reversion toward $4,000/oz. For traders, the message is that the market is still highly headline-sensitive, but the burden of proof is now on bulls to defend elevated valuations after an extreme speculative move.