Oil prices fall and markets rally after Trump says Iran war will be over in three weeks

Gold extended its war-risk bid, rising another 0.8% on Wednesday to above $4,700/oz after jumping 3.5% on Tuesday, as Trump’s comment that the Iran war would end in “two to three weeks” triggered a broad relief rally in risk assets and a sharp selloff in oil. Brent crude fell to $99.78/bbl, down more than 15% from Tuesday and its lowest in a week, while equities surged across Asia, Europe and the US. The move underscores how tightly precious metals are now trading to geopolitics, energy and inflation expectations. Emma Wall of Hargreaves Lansdown said markets were “choosing to believe the optimism from the White House,” but warned that energy disruption could still persist for months and continue to pressure inflation and growth. That macro mix helps keep gold supported even as equities rebound, especially with rate expectations in the UK being pared back. Near term, gold is likely to remain sensitive to any further White House guidance, confirmation of de-escalation, and whether oil stabilizes or resumes falling. If the market continues to price a quicker end to the conflict, some of the geopolitical premium could unwind; however, persistent uncertainty around supply disruption, inflation and policy rates should keep dip-buying interest intact around the current record-high zone.