UK food inflation ‘could hit 9% this year’ as Iran war drives up energy prices

UK food inflation could hit 9% by year-end, up from a pre-conflict forecast of 3.2%, as the Iran war lifts energy, transport and packaging costs and disrupts supply chains. The Food and Drink Federation says the projection already assumes the Strait of Hormuz reopens within 2-3 weeks and major energy sites normalize within a year, underscoring how persistent the inflation impulse could be even under a relatively benign scenario. The warning lands as Chancellor Rachel Reeves prepares to meet supermarket chiefs, with the government under pressure to consider targeted support for households and producers. UK businesses are facing a sharp reset in energy costs from Wednesday as many fixed contracts roll off in April, while household bills are set to fall until July before rising again. For precious metals, the main transmission is through higher inflation expectations and a stronger case for policy caution if the energy shock feeds through to the broader UK price basket. Gold can benefit from renewed stagflation fears and risk aversion, but the article offers no direct PM market data; near-term focus remains on energy flows, Hormuz headlines, and any signs the inflation spike broadens beyond food into core services.