Gold and Silver Make 4% Easter Week Gains as Trump Spikes Oil Price Again

Gold and silver rallied back sharply after an overnight slide, with spot gold rebounding to as high as $4,688/oz and silver to $72.81/oz, leaving both metals up roughly 4.3-4.5% on the Easter week and more than 40% higher in gold versus Good Friday last year. The move was driven by renewed geopolitical stress as President Trump escalated rhetoric on Iran, sending Brent crude above $110/bbl, pressuring equities and bonds, and reviving safe-haven demand across precious metals. HSBC’s wealth management team said inflation concerns and higher rate volatility are pushing policymakers toward a prolonged hold, while still arguing gold remains bullish over the medium to long term on diversification and safe-haven demand. Rate pricing has also swung materially: the market is now assigning only a 2% chance of a Fed hike by year-end, down from more than 43% a week earlier, while the odds of a cut before Christmas have rebounded to 21% after briefly falling to zero. Near term, gold and silver look highly sensitive to any further escalation in the US-Israel-Iran conflict, with oil and bond yields the key transmission channels. The recent rally was aided by falling sovereign bond prices and higher yields across the US, Europe and Japan, which reinforced macro uncertainty and supported bullion as a hedge against both geopolitical shock and policy instability.