Chris Casey: Markets Could See The Tariff Rollback Two Ways #tariffs #tariffnews #finance #markets

A potential U.S. tariff rollback could be read by markets in two opposing ways, creating a two-sided macro impulse that matters for precious metals via growth, rates, and fiscal-risk channels. Chris Casey argues that removing tariffs effectively returns “hundreds of billions” to the private sector, which free-market economists would frame as supportive for business investment and economic growth. The counter-argument is fiscal: with U.S. budget deficits cited as running near ~$2 trillion annually, losing roughly ~$300bn of annual tariff revenue could intensify concerns around debt sustainability and long-run fiscal solvency. That framing would likely pressure duration/risk premia (higher term premium) and keep “fiscal dominance” narratives in play. For gold/silver, the near-term read-through depends on which narrative dominates: (1) pro-growth/“risk-on” and potentially higher real yields is typically a headwind for gold, while (2) heightened fiscal stress, deficit funding concerns, and risk-premium repricing is typically supportive for gold (and potentially for silver if it also boosts inflation uncertainty). Key catalysts would be any concrete policy timeline/legislative path for tariff changes, the Treasury funding outlook, and market reaction in real yields and the USD.