Oil, strait of Hormuz and empty threats: a timeline of Trump’s flip-flopping on the Iran war

Trump’s Iran messaging has swung sharply over 29 Mar-1 Apr, toggling between ceasefire talk, threats to strike oil infrastructure, and claims the US could easily force the Strait of Hormuz open. The article highlights escalating uncertainty around Kharg Island, which handles roughly 90% of Iran’s oil exports, and the potential for further pressure on energy markets if rhetoric turns into action. The key market takeaway is that this is primarily an oil-risk story, but it carries a classic geopolitical tailwind for safe-haven demand if the conflict broadens or shipping through Hormuz is disrupted. Trump also tied the war narrative to rising US gasoline prices, with the national average cited at $4/gal, underscoring domestic pressure to contain escalation even as he repeatedly threatened infrastructure strikes. For precious metals, the immediate impact is second-order: gold would likely benefit from any renewed risk premium, especially if Hormuz threats intensify or broader Middle East retaliation becomes credible. Near-term focus is on whether the ceasefire rhetoric is followed by de-escalation or another round of threats/actions against Iranian energy assets and shipping lanes.