Higher energy costs from Iran war could threaten fragile economics of AI boom | Heather Stewart

Iran conflict-driven energy spikes are a macro bullish input for precious metals via higher inflation, tighter financial conditions, and weaker growth, but the article’s direct focus is the strain on global industry and the AI capex boom rather than gold/silver specifically. The key takeaway for metals desks is that a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz would keep oil and power costs elevated for months, reinforcing the inflation hedge bid for gold even if the immediate market reaction remains oil-led. The piece cites Bank of England warnings that the conflict could hit markets through slower growth, higher inflation and tighter financial conditions, with particular stress on energy-intensive datacentre and supply-chain investment. The WTO also highlighted that 70% of US investment growth in the first three quarters of last year was AI-related, underscoring how vulnerable the broader risk complex is to a persistent energy shock. For bullion, the near-term implication is supportive but indirect: stronger inflation expectations and risk-off positioning typically aid gold, while higher rates could offset some of that if central banks lean hawkish. Watch crude, gasoline, and bond market inflation breakevens for confirmation; if the war widens or drags on, the macro backdrop becomes more constructive for XAU and, to a lesser extent, silver through broader inflation and growth concerns.