Shell oil trading profits soar amid Iran war but Qatar strikes hit gas output

Shell expects a sharp jump in first-quarter commodity trading profits, with its trading desks benefiting from the volatility sparked by the Iran crisis and wider Middle East disruption. The company said earnings in its renewable energy trading arm could rise to $200m-$700m from about $100m in Q4, while its oil and products unit should also benefit from the recent surge in energy markets. At the same time, Shell flagged weaker Q1 gas production after damage to its Ras Laffan LNG assets in Qatar and the impact of Cyclone Narelle in Australia. Output is expected at 880,000-920,000 boe/d versus 948,000 in Q4, though some of the loss should be offset by ramp-up at LNG Canada. Oil briefly fell back below $100/bbl after a US-Iran ceasefire, but prices remain more than 50% above last year’s levels. For precious metals, the key takeaway is the renewed geopolitical risk premium: conflict-driven energy spikes, supply disruption in the Gulf, and the risk of April fuel shortages in Europe all reinforce the inflation and safe-haven backdrop that typically supports gold. Near term, market attention stays on whether the Hormuz opening holds, how quickly Gulf energy flows normalize, and whether energy prices re-ignite broader inflation expectations.