Will shipping in the strait of Hormuz – and oil prices – return to normal?

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below normal despite a ceasefire, leaving roughly 2,000 vessels and about 20,000 seafarers stranded in the Gulf. Traffic has only recovered to single digits per day versus an average of around 140 pre-war, and analysts say a temporary truce does not yet restore confidence that tankers can transit safely. Iran is still controlling passage through a tightened clearance regime for “non-hostile vessels,” including checks on ship ownership, cargo and voyage history, with routing pushed closer to the Iranian coast. The article also notes a possible new fee structure of up to $2m per ship, which could become a structural toll on regional flows even if the ceasefire holds. For precious metals, the key implication is persistence of Middle East geopolitical risk premia: unless shipping normalises quickly, oil and gas supply disruption may remain elevated, keeping upside pressure on inflation expectations and safe-haven demand. Near term, desk focus stays on whether a large European-owned vessel transits safely and whether empty ships begin re-entering to load cargoes; any renewed risk to Hormuz traffic would be supportive for gold, while a clean reopening could ease some macro bid.