Oil prices could take a year to return to pre-Iran levels even if ceasefire holds, Australian experts warn

Global oil markets may need 6-12 months to normalise even if the Iran ceasefire holds, with RBC’s Helima Croft and Westpac’s Robert Rennie saying reopening the Strait of Hormuz will be operationally messy and slow. Brent briefly plunged by about $20/bbl to near $90 after the ceasefire headline, but has since rebounded above $97/bbl as traders reassess how quickly flows can resume. The article highlights that around 9m bpd, or roughly 9% of global supply, has been paused awaiting safe passage through Hormuz, leaving a sizeable geopolitical risk premium in energy. Australian officials and bank strategists also warned that damage to oil and gas infrastructure, shuttered wells, displaced crews and refinery restocking could keep fuel markets tight well after any formal end to hostilities. For precious metals, the key takeaway is the inflation and risk-premium channel: persistent energy disruption supports the macro case for gold as a hedge, even if the article itself is oil-centric. Near term, watch Brent’s ability to hold back above $95/bbl, any confirmation of reopened tanker traffic, and whether regional escalation resumes; those developments will drive the next leg of inflation expectations and safe-haven demand.