Gold, silver down but well up from daily lows

Gold and silver prices experienced sharp intraday volatility amid geopolitical developments related to the Iran conflict, with gold hitting a four-month low and silver a 3.5-month low before recovering slightly. April gold futures last traded down at $1,369.10/oz, and May silver was down to $17.63/oz. The sudden moves were triggered by U.S. President Trump’s announcement of a temporary postponement of military strikes against Iran, followed by mixed signals from Tehran and further regional attacks, creating high market uncertainty. Goldman Sachs upgraded its 2026 crude oil forecasts significantly due to sustained disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz, projecting Brent crude to average $85/bbl and WTI $79/bbl, reflecting the largest-ever global supply shock. The resulting energy market volatility supported the U.S. dollar as a safe haven, which climbed close to a fresh year-to-date high amid expectations of further appreciation. This dollar strength, amid inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions, continues to weigh on gold and silver prices. Market participants are closely watching the technical resistance level at $1,375-$1,380 for April gold futures to confirm any sustained rebound. Meanwhile, elevated oil prices and political risk remain key near-term drivers. The next few weeks will be critical as the situation in the Middle East evolves, influencing inflation expectations, safe-haven demand, and U.S. dollar momentum. Traders should monitor U.S. Treasury yields, crude oil prices, and geopolitical headlines for directional cues. The underlying risk remains high given ongoing regional hostilities and retaliatory strikes, while divergent narratives from Washington and Tehran add complexity. On balance, the precious metals market faces headwinds from a strong dollar and risk-on sentiment punctuated by sharp intraday swings, underscoring elevated volatility in PM trading conditions.