Gold and silver send bearish signals that the bull market may be on hold for months to come – Heraeus

Heraeus says gold and silver both flashed bearish technical signals in March, implying the broader precious-metals bull market may be on pause for several months, even as central banks stayed net buyers of bullion. Gold is still trading strong near $4,767/oz and probing resistance around $4,800/oz, but the desk argues the monthly bearish engulfing pattern argues for caution after the late-January stall in trend momentum. On macro, Heraeus sees the Fed trapped between sticky inflation and a stagnant labor market. March non-farm payrolls rose 178,000 versus 118,000 expected, but BLS revisions were negative in 11 of the last 12 months, averaging -51,000. The probability of one to two Fed cuts in 2026 rose to 27.3% on April 9 from 14.1% before the April 7 ceasefire announcement, with the ceasefire briefly lifting precious metals as the US dollar and energy sold off. Central-bank demand remains a key offset: February saw net gold buying of 27t versus 5t in January, led by Poland (+20.2t), Uzbekistan (+7.8t) and Kazakhstan (+7.7t), while Turkey (-8.1t) and Russia (-6.2t) sold. Heraeus also notes central banks added 863t last year. For silver, Perth Mint bar-and-coin sales fell to 976,450oz in March from almost 2moz in February, suggesting retail investment demand cooled after the early-February selloff. Near term, the key risk is whether gold can hold the recent breakout structure; Heraeus flags support around the March lows near $4,100/oz if the uptrend reverses, while a continued move above $4,800/oz would likely invalidate the bearish monthly signal. The silver tape looks softer on investment-demand indicators, but central-bank accumulation and any renewed rate-cut pricing remain supportive for the complex.