Silver market faces another deficit in 2026 as volatility and investment demand shape outlook

The Silver Institute’s 2026 Silver Survey points to a sixth straight annual market deficit of 46.3 million ounces, keeping the silver market structurally tight and vulnerable to sharp volatility/liquidity squeezes. Mine supply is expected to be broadly flat and recycling higher, but not enough to offset demand, while years of undersupply continue to erode above-ground stocks. Metals Focus’ Philip Newman said the market is increasingly being driven by investment flows, macro uncertainty and tighter liquidity conditions. Industrial demand is forecast to fall 3% this year to 639.6 million ounces, with solar consumption seen down 19% as higher prices prompt thrifting and substitution in photovoltaic panels; that weakness is partly offset by demand from data centers, electrification and EVs. On the flow side, the outlook remains constructive: global silver ETFs are projected to post modest inflows of around 30 million ounces after record 2025 inflows, while coin and bar demand is expected to rise 18% to its highest level since 2022. The report implies near-term price support from investment demand, but also warns that ETF inflow/outflow swings can quickly tighten or release physical supply, amplifying volatility into year-end.