Gold continues to struggle at $4,800; market could be waiting for a solid peace plan - Pepperstone

Gold is struggling to hold above $4,800/oz even as the U.S. dollar softens and broader risk appetite improves on hopes of a Middle East peace deal. Spot gold last traded at $4,794.30/oz, down nearly 1% on the day, suggesting the market is failing to get a safe-haven bid despite a weaker dollar and lower volatility. Pepperstone’s Michael Brown said $4,800/oz is the first key hurdle for a renewed bullish leg, but argued investors may still be working off the speculative excess that drove gold to January’s record highs. He described the metal as trading more like a high-beta risk asset than a traditional haven and said it is showing little correlation with the usual drivers, including the dollar and real yields. Brown sees the near-term path for bullion tied to whether Middle East tensions continue to de-escalate. If they do, gold may remain supported, but the next meaningful upside may depend on the market refocusing on the economic damage from the conflict rather than the initial relief rally. He also flagged policy risk in Europe and the U.K., where imported energy exposure raises the chance of a Bank of England or ECB policy mistake if inflation remains sticky. For traders, the key near-term watchpoints are the $4,800/oz resistance area and whether macro flows shift back toward growth fears. A turn higher could emerge if investors start hedging downside growth risks from tighter policy or renewed energy stress; otherwise, a continued peace-deal narrative may keep gold consolidating below recent highs.