Gold and silver to consolidate further as bonds become a competing safe haven - Marketgauge’s Schneider

MarketGauge’s Michele Schneider argues gold and silver are likely to consolidate after failing at key resistance, with gold unable to sustain a break above ~$5,400 and silver capped below ~$100. Post-weekend U.S. missile strikes tied to the U.S.-Israel/Iran conflict did not produce a durable safe-haven bid; instead, both metals saw sharp selling, with gold testing support near ~$5,000/oz and silver briefly dipping below ~$80 before bouncing. Schneider’s key near-term bearish/risk factor is competition from bonds as an “undervalued” safe haven: 10Y Treasury yields fell below 4% last week, prompting capital-allocation reassessment amid rising credit-system concerns. She frames this as a potential “sea change,” where speculators may rotate toward duration/USTs as the perceived safety net, especially if policymakers prioritize financial stability over inflation-fighting; she also notes the Fed’s implicit backstop as buyer of last resort. Tactically, she highlights the gold:silver ratio as the primary signal. With the ratio around ~61 (neutral), she flags <55 as a buy-silver/outperformance trigger, while >65 would suggest fading momentum and looking away from the broader metals complex. Catalyst/risk skew: escalation into a larger, prolonged conflict could override consolidation and drive materially higher oil, gold, and silver; absent that, bond-led “safe haven” flows and rate moves may dominate the next decisive leg. Longer term, she remains constructive on precious metals on geopolitical tension, supply risks, and broader macro uncertainty, noting strength across parts of the commodity complex (e.g., copper and oil) even as broader markets face rising macro risks.