Willem Middelkoop: Why $500 Silver is Possible as Comex Inventory Drops 30%

Willem Middelkoop (Commodity Discovery Fund) reiterated an extremely bullish silver call at PDAC 2026, arguing a “monetary reset” is actively unfolding and could drive silver to $500/oz. His thesis hinges on a tightening physical market—highlighting a reported ~30% drop in COMEX silver inventory—and the potential for a large re-rating of silver versus gold if investors re-engage with precious metals as monetary hedges. Middelkoop points to long-run historical anchors for relative value, stating the gold–silver ratio “traditionally has been one in 10 for over 2000 years,” implying substantial upside for silver if gold remains firm and the ratio mean-reverts. He frames silver not only as an industrial metal but as an under-owned monetary metal that could experience an outsized move during a broader confidence/monetary regime shift, especially if physical tightness constrains deliverable supply. Market implications: the key tradeable signal is the emphasis on shrinking exchange inventories and potential for a physical squeeze/tightness narrative to re-emerge. Near-term catalysts would be inventory/warehouse trends (COMEX/LBMA), signs of stress in spot-forward spreads/lease rates, and any macro shock that boosts safe-haven demand or prompts renewed retail/institutional inflows into silver-backed products. Key risks: the $500 target is highly tail-risk and dependent on an extreme monetary/financial regime shift; silver’s heavy industrial exposure also makes it vulnerable to growth slowdowns and liquidation in risk-off events.