The world’s biggest sovereign gold buyer might start selling to double defense budget

Poland—recently the world’s largest central-bank gold buyer—may reverse course and sell part of its ~550-ton gold reserve to help fund a major defense buildup, potentially raising about $13bn from gold sales (and up to ~$16bn including other central-bank revenue streams) in 2026, according to Bloomberg-sourced discussions cited by Kitco. NBP Governor Adam Glapiński outlined a plan to President Karol Nawrocki to monetize gains on gold holdings—either via outright sales with an intention to buy back later, or via a legal change to revalue reserves and direct the “profit” to defense spending. The proposal is framed as an alternative to EU defense-financing mechanisms (including the EU’s ~$174bn loans-for-weapons program) that Polish officials fear could strain ties with Washington. Glapiński publicly confirmed he is working on a “gold reserve-based plan” but did not provide details. The shift would be notable given Poland’s strong bid in the official sector: the NBP added more than 100 tonnes in both 2024 and 2025, and in Sept. 2025 Glapiński reiterated an aim to lift gold to 30% of total reserve assets, calling gold “the only safe investment for state reserves.” Market implications: any credible signal that a top official-sector buyer could become a seller is a headline risk for gold sentiment and could widen perceived two-way central-bank flow risk, especially if other fiscally pressured states explore similar monetization. That said, the described structure (sell-and-buy-back) and/or revaluation (non-flow accounting change) could reduce immediate physical market impact; traders should watch for confirmation of size/timing, legislative steps, and any NBP commentary on execution (spot vs. swaps/leases) as near-term catalysts. Key uncertainty is whether this is primarily a political trial balloon versus an actionable policy shift; Poland’s stated strategic goal (higher gold share of reserves) argues against sustained net selling unless defense financing needs dominate. Any concrete timelines, tender announcements, or disclosure of derivatives-based monetization would be the most tradeable follow-through.