Silver Fear Cycles: Same Story, Different Day

David Morgan says gold remains the strongest precious metal YTD, while silver is still positive but likely to trade sideways through summer or longer unless an extraordinary catalyst breaks the range. His core view is that silver has already seen a major run, but the broader monetary case remains intact: fiat weakness, ongoing capital rotation toward precious metals, and a sector that is still under-owned and misunderstood. The main thrust of the piece is a pushback against repeated claims that COMEX silver failure is imminent. Morgan argues COMEX is a futures venue, not a bullion dealer, and that comparing total open interest with registered stocks is misleading because only a small share of contracts go to delivery. He also notes that many deliveries are simply bullion-bank transfers inside the system, with cash settlement reserved as a last-resort contractual outcome rather than an immediate stress signal. For traders, he says the real indicators to watch are lease rates, backwardation, physical premiums in London/New York/Shanghai, ETF flows, refinery throughput, and arbitrage behavior. His message is that fear-driven delivery-month narratives can push investors into bad positioning, while the more important question is whether physical stress is actually showing up in core market plumbing.