Stocks rise and oil dips on hopes of 15-point Iran peace plan

Oil prices briefly dipped below $100/bbl to $97.57 on reports of a 15-point US peace proposal to Iran, raising hopes for a ceasefire in the Middle East and easing supply concerns. Asian and European equity markets rallied on the news, with Japan’s Nikkei up 2.9% and Germany’s DAX gaining 1.8%. However, oil prices rebounded amid uncertainty as Iran denied recent talks, and its closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt global oil flow, the largest such disruption ever according to the IEA. Gold, traditionally a safe haven, has fallen about 13% from its $5,000/oz peak in January to around $4,460/oz since the bombing campaign began, challenging its recent role as a geopolitical hedge. BlackRock’s CEO Larry Fink warned that a prolonged Middle East conflict could push oil prices toward $150/bbl, triggering a severe global recession. He outlined two scenarios: a resolution restoring pre-war oil prices or sustained high prices causing significant economic downturn. For precious metals traders, the large swings in oil prices and geopolitical risk are key drivers of gold’s performance. The stability of the US-Iran dialogue and the fate of the Strait of Hormuz remain critical near-term catalysts. Gold’s retreat despite heightened tensions signals potential for price volatility if the conflict escalates or eases. Watch for further guidance from central banks and institutional flows amid this uncertainty.