National Economy Got off to a Robust and Promising Start in the First Two Months

China’s National Bureau of Statistics said the economy had a “robust and promising start” in Jan–Feb, with industrial production accelerating: value-added output from industrial firms above designated size rose 6.3% YoY (vs +1.1pp vs Dec), led by manufacturing (+6.6%) and mining (+6.1%). Equipment manufacturing grew 9.3% YoY and high-tech manufacturing 13.1% YoY; key product output included 3D printing devices (+54.1% YoY), lithium-ion batteries (+42.6%), and industrial robots (+31.1%). Services also strengthened, with the Services Production Index up 5.2% YoY; standout categories included information/software services (+10.1%) and leasing/business services (+8.2%). However, sentiment surveys remained mixed: the official manufacturing PMI printed 49.0 in February (still in contraction), while the Production & Operation Expectation Index improved to 53.2; the services business activity index was 49.7 with expectations at 55.8. For precious metals, the data points to firmer China growth momentum (especially industrial/tech capex) but with PMI levels still below 50, keeping policy support on the table. Near-term, a “better growth” read can lean modestly bearish for gold on risk appetite, while evidence of continued policy easing/support (implied by sub-50 PMIs and emphasis on counter-cyclical adjustment) can remain a structural tailwind via rates/liquidity expectations. Key catalyst is follow-through in March activity/PMIs and any policy messaging from the State Council/PBoC tied to domestic demand support.