‘Remain calm’: Japan is gripped by fears of a naphtha shortage. What is it and why are people worried?

Japan is dealing with a naphtha shortage triggered by Middle East supply disruption, with wholesale inflation in April accelerating at the fastest pace in three years and naphtha prices jumping 79.4%. The issue has become politically salient after Calbee said it would switch some snack packaging to monochrome, underscoring how an oil-linked feedstock shortage is now feeding through to consumer goods and industrial inputs. More than 70% of respondents in a Kyodo poll said they were worried about naphtha supply disruptions, while the government has been forced to reassure the public that supplies for ink and garbage bags are secured. Media reports suggest the disruption is already affecting plastics, construction, dry cleaning, food processing and paint production, despite official claims that alternative oil sources are being found. For precious metals, the immediate takeaway is a modestly supportive macro backdrop: higher inflation pressure, energy insecurity and Middle East geopolitical risk tend to underpin gold as a hedge. The near-term catalyst is whether the supply shock broadens further across Asian manufacturing and whether Japan’s inflation data keep surprising to the upside, which could reinforce safe-haven demand and rate-cut expectations globally.