Gold could find a safe-haven bid if the Iran war drags on - Natixis' Dahdah

Natixis precious metals analyst Bernard Dahdah argues gold’s lack of an immediate safe-haven bid amid the Iran conflict reflects a “worst-case” risk framing (including disruption risk to the Strait of Hormuz) that is instead supporting the USD and forcing some profit-taking/liquidity-driven selling. Spot gold was last cited at $5,078/oz (down >1% on the day), after failing to sustain moves above $5,100 and pulling back from last week’s $5,419 high; key near-term support is flagged around $5,000. Dahdah’s base case is that gold can still grind higher if energy prices transmit into higher global inflation expectations: he sees potential for gold to “creep up” toward a $5,500–$5,800/oz range. He also notes that equity weakness may be amplifying gold selling via margin calls/portfolio rebalancing; the article cites the S&P 500 down >3% since the U.S. and Israel launched missiles against Iran a week ago, trading around 6,645. However, Natixis stresses event-driven safe-haven demand is typically not durable. Dahdah warns that once the war ends, gold could revert toward a pre-war level near ~$4,600/oz, implying the market is pricing roughly ~$450/oz of Iran-war premium. Near-term catalysts are thus conflict/energy headlines (Hormuz risk, oil spike), USD strength/liquidity conditions, and whether $5,000 support holds versus a deeper de-risking move. Net: tactically supportive if inflation/energy shock dominates and USD fades, but asymmetric downside risk is highlighted on de-escalation, with a large implied “premium” that could unwind quickly.