Gold and Silver Price Forecast: Warsh’s Jackson Hole Speech Takes Center Stage - FXEmpire

AI desk brief

Gold eased more than 1% on Friday after hitting a three-month high earlier in the week, with spot XAU last seen around $4,579/oz after printing an intraday high of $4,697 on Aug. 25. The near-term pullback is being framed as profit-taking ahead of Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks, while the market is still pricing a 33.8% chance of a September hike and 45.1% for December via FedWatch. Higher rate expectations are seen supporting the dollar and Treasury yields, which would pressure metals, but the broader trend remains constructive.

Technically, gold has reclaimed the 200-day SMA near $4,500 and the article flags that level as the key pivot: holding it keeps the path open toward $4,800 and then $5,000, while a break lower risks a move back toward $4,300. The note also points to overbought RSI conditions as the immediate reason for the correction, implying the tape may need to consolidate before the next leg higher.

Silver is presented as a bullish coiled setup, with spot XAG consolidating and building a potential upside breakout. The critical trigger is $72: a clean break is said to open a move toward $90, while failure there could send silver back toward $64 and even $60. The article argues that ETF demand, central bank buying, fiscal concerns, and Treasury support for long-duration bonds remain the broader tailwinds, so any Warsh-driven hawkish reaction may be more of a timing issue than a trend change.