Gold Price Forecast: Ahead of September CPI, Will Gold Break Above $4,200 or Fall Below $4,100? - TradingKey

AI desk brief

Gold is range-bound near $4,150 ahead of the US September CPI print, with traders watching $4,100 support and $4,200-$4,230 resistance. The market expects headline CPI to reaccelerate to 3.6% y/y on energy prices, while core CPI is seen at 2.5% y/y; the article argues core inflation will matter most for the Fed path and, by extension, gold’s next move.

A softer core print could push the dollar and Treasury yields lower and allow gold to retest $4,200, while an upside surprise in core inflation would likely strengthen both and pressure gold back toward $4,100, then $4,066 and potentially $4,000. Momentum is still weak technically, with RSI near 41.6 and price capped by the 20-day moving average.