CIBC cuts Q4 gold price forecast to $4,500, then sees bounce to $5,200 in 2027 - TradingView

AI desk brief

CIBC cut its Q4 gold forecast sharply to $4,500/oz from $6,500 and lowered its 2027/2028 averages to $5,200/oz and $5,500/oz, but still sees the longer-term gold bull case intact. The bank said persistent inflation, higher energy prices, and a more restrictive Fed are making the policy backdrop tougher for gold, even as geopolitical risk, government debt concerns, and reserve diversification remain supportive structural drivers.

The report also pointed to strong investment demand and central-bank buying as key pillars, citing record global gold-backed ETF inflows of $30.7B in Q3, equal to 211 tonnes of physical gold demand. Spot/futures sentiment remains fragile near term: December Comex gold fell 0.4% to $4,122.40/oz, while silver rose 1.3% to $57.706/oz; one analyst warned a temporary break below $4,000/oz cannot be ruled out if inflation and oil keep pressure on rate expectations.