Gold declines below $4,150 as elevated oil prices reinforce prospects of further Fed tightening - Mitrade

AI desk brief

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading lower near $4,120 after elevated oil prices revived US inflation concerns and kept the prospect of Fed tightening alive. Traders are pricing about a 16.1% chance of another 25 bp hike at the Oct. 27-28 meeting, while Commerzbank noted Brent at $109.55 and gold down 0.6% to $4,141 alongside firmer USD and higher Treasury yields.

Near term, the technical setup remains bearish: price is below the 20-day Bollinger midline and the 100-day SMA, with RSI around 41. Initial resistance is seen near $4,170, then $4,235 and $4,275, while support sits near $4,065. Middle East energy-supply risks remain an upside inflation catalyst, but for now they are feeding a higher-for-longer rates narrative that weighs on bullion.