GDP, (Second Estimate), 4th Quarter and Year 2025

US BEA’s second estimate shows US real GDP grew just +0.7% SAAR in Q4 2025 (vs +4.4% in Q3), revised down by 0.7pp from the advance print. The sharp growth deceleration plus a downward revision is a macro-negative input for risk assets and generally supportive for gold via lower growth/softer rate expectations, though inflation components remained firm. The Q4 GDP gain was driven by consumer spending and investment, partly offset by declines in government spending and exports; imports fell (a positive arithmetic contribution). Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose +1.9% SAAR, revised down 0.5pp. On prices, the gross domestic purchases price index was revised up to +3.8% SAAR (+0.1pp), while PCE inflation held at +2.9% SAAR and core PCE at +2.7% SAAR (unchanged). For 2025 overall, real GDP is estimated at +2.1% (revised down 0.1pp), with PCE inflation +2.6% and core PCE +2.8% (unchanged). Near-term catalyst: the Q4 ‘third estimate’ GDP, GDP by industry and corporate profits release is scheduled for Apr 9, 2026 (08:30 ET); any further growth downgrades or stickier price revisions would be directly relevant for front-end rates and USD direction—key drivers for XAU.