Personal Income and Outlays, January 2026

US BEA Jan-2026 PCE inflation printed firm: headline PCE price index +0.3% m/m and core +0.4% m/m; y/y rates were +2.8% (headline) and +3.1% (core). The sticky core read is the key macro input for rates and real yields—typically a headwind for gold if it pushes Fed cut pricing further out. On activity, personal income rose $113.8bn (+0.4% m/m) while disposable personal income jumped $219.9bn (+0.9% m/m). Nominal PCE increased $81.1bn (+0.4% m/m) but real PCE was only +0.1% m/m, with services spending +$105.7bn offset by a -$24.6bn decline in goods. Personal saving was $1.05tn and the saving rate was 4.5%. Details show the income gain was driven by compensation (+$83.7bn, including wages/salaries +$71.2bn), dividends (+$44.6bn) and transfer receipts (+$18.0bn), with Social Security benefits +$49.2bn reflecting a January COLA. BEA also revised estimates for Jul–Dec. Market implications: the 0.4% m/m core and 3.1% y/y core keep the “disinflation” narrative challenged and can support front-end yields/real rates, a near-term bearish impulse for gold, especially if reinforced by upcoming CPI/PPI prints and Fed communication. Watch April 9 (next PCE release for Feb-2026) as the next key catalyst for rate-path repricing and precious-metals volatility.