Gold Steadies as Stocks Rally from Iran War Chaos, But Central-Bank Buying Sinks

Gold and silver steadied Wednesday as risk assets rebounded and energy prices paused after earlier war-driven spikes, while new World Gold Council (WGC) data pointed to a sharp slowdown in reported central-bank gold buying at the start of 2026. WGC/IMF-compiled figures show official-sector net purchases plunging to just 5 tonnes in January as gold spiked near $5,600—weakest since Dec-2024 and ~80% below 2025’s monthly average (~27 tonnes). London bullion traded up from Tuesday’s 4-week low, touching ~$5,205/oz before fading about $40 intraday. Silver partially retraced the prior two days’ drop, peaking around $86.80/oz at the noon London auction before sliding roughly $3. In macro cross-currents, Brent eased ~$2 to ~$82.30 after a ~15.8% weekly surge, and Dutch TTF gas pulled back ~10% after a near-70% jump—reducing immediate inflation hedging impulse versus earlier in the week. Geopolitics remain the dominant catalyst: the transcript cites further escalation (US submarine reportedly sinking an Iranian naval vessel; NATO air defenses intercepting a missile) alongside widening political fractures among US allies (UK/France questioning legality; Spain refusing use of bases). Rates and the USD also moderated after war-driven moves; the dollar’s pullback helped lift China onshore pricing, with Shanghai quoted at roughly a $30/oz premium to London—supportive near-term for physical demand signals. Key trading implication: if the IMF-reported central-bank bid is genuinely slowing, near-term price support may lean more on geopolitical risk premium and Asian physical premia than on official-sector flows. Watch for (1) further Middle East escalation/headlines, (2) USD/rates direction as volatility normalizes, and (3) confirmation whether central-bank buying is merely “under-reported” (WGC notes past decade purchases may be ~2x IMF figures) versus an actual demand air pocket following January volatility.