There is still plenty of upside in the mining sector as bull market euphoria has yet to materialize, says Soar Financial CEO

Gold equities are still in an early-to-mid stage bull phase despite outsized gains, according to Soar Financial CEO Kai Hoffmann speaking at PDAC 2026. He argues the rally remains largely “price-driven, not sentiment-driven,” with bull-market euphoria and broad institutional reallocation not yet evident—suggesting further upside potential for miners if flows broaden. Performance has been extreme over the past year: VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is up >160% and trading around $106.22, while spot gold is up ~98% to about $5,125.80/oz. Hoffmann says inflows are improving and some institutions (including pension funds) are returning, but investors remain heavily allocated to tech/AI rather than meaningfully rotating into mining equities. Fundamentally, he highlights record margins and free cash flow for producers at current gold prices, with “big financings” but not froth. A key catalyst for larger institutional participation—particularly insurance companies—would be more consistent capital returns (dividends alongside buybacks) to demonstrate durable yield even in flat metal-price years. Key risk/constraint is supply: Hoffmann flags declining production profiles at major producers (citing Barrick, Newmont, Agnico Eagle) and a lack of major new discoveries, which could limit long-term growth and the sector’s ability to sustain rising payouts. Near-term, the desk should watch for signals of broader institutional inflows (dividend policy shifts, capital return announcements, larger financings) as confirmation that the trade is moving from price-led to sentiment/flow-led.