Gold and silver still on long-term upward path despite dollar safe-haven demand – Thorsten Polleit

Kitco interview with economist Thorsten Polleit argues recent USD/Treasury safe-haven demand is a liquidity-driven bid that can temporarily pressure precious metals, even while the longer-term bull case remains intact. He says gold is still holding support above $5,000/oz but is struggling to sustain near-term upside as investors prioritize the most liquid assets in a stress regime. Polleit links the current liquidity preference to heightened geopolitical uncertainty (citing U.S.-Israel military action against Iran) and expectations that central banks—led by the Fed—will ultimately “open up the floodgates” to backstop markets if stress escalates (banks/hedge funds/financial system). He frames the backdrop as a structural “inflationary regime,” driven by rising government debt, higher energy prices, and recurring monetary intervention that erodes fiat purchasing power; he also argues central banks have limited capacity to keep rates high given debt burdens and financial stability constraints. Implication for PM trading: near-term dips tied to USD funding stress/risk-off liquidity grabs may be tactical buy opportunities if the policy reaction function shifts toward renewed easing/liquidity support. Polleit’s medium-term anchor is notably bullish: he would not be surprised to see gold around $8,000/oz within five years, framing the move as a revaluation rather than a bubble. Key catalysts/risk factors to monitor include escalation/de-escalation of the Iran-related conflict premium, any Fed/bond-market backstop signals, and whether USD liquidity demand persists enough to cap gold despite supportive macro fundamentals. He advises positioning with a long-term horizon—“If you already hold gold, keep it”—highlighting the risk of getting whipsawed by short-term volatility during crisis-driven cash bids.