Europe could face Iran war fuel rationing by April, says Shell boss

Shell CEO Wael Sawan has warned that Europe could face energy shortages and fuel rationing as early as April if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, disrupting crude oil deliveries. The current crisis, now in its fourth week, has already caused jet fuel prices to double and threatens diesel and petrol supplies ahead of the northern hemisphere summer driving season. Oil prices have recently eased from $114 to around $100 per barrel but remain vulnerable to geopolitical tensions stemming from the Iran conflict. Energy scarcity concerns were echoed by Germany’s economy minister, Katherina Reiche, who cited the continued nuclear phase-out as a complicating factor for Europe's energy security and highlighted LNG imports as a vital stopgap. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink further warned that prolonged conflict could push crude prices above $150 per barrel, potentially triggering a severe global recession, while a resolution could see prices revert to around $70 per barrel. The market faces significant near-term risks tied to geopolitical developments around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, with fuel supply disruptions likely to tighten physical markets and support volatile price action. Key catalysts include diplomatic progress on Iran, OPEC+ supply responses, and demand trends heading into the summer. Elevated oil prices would pressure inflation and economic growth, influencing central bank policy and precious metals demand as inflation hedges.